Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
