Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
